Revolutionary Violence and Counterrevolution
By Killian Clarke, Georgetown College
What kind of revolutions are most susceptible to counterrevolutions? I argue that violent revolutions are much less probably than nonviolent ones to be reversed as a result of they produce regimes with robust and dependable armies which are in a position to defeat counterrevolutionary threats. I leverage an authentic dataset of counterrevolutions from 1900 to 2015, which permits us for the primary time to doc counterrevolutionary emergence and success worldwide. These knowledge reveal that revolutions involving extra violence are much less vulnerable to counterrevolution and that this relationship exists primarily as a result of violence lowers the chance of counterrevolutionary success—however not counterrevolutionary emergence. I exhibit mechanisms by evaluating Cuba’s nonviolent 1933 rebellion (which succumbed to a counterrevolution) and its 1959 revolutionary insurgency (which defeated a number of counterrevolutions). Although nonviolence could also be superior to violence in relation to toppling autocrats, it’s much less efficient in bringing about lasting change and guaranteeing that these autocrats by no means return.